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Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 19 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 45.0%

Draw: 22.0%

Aston Villa win: 33.0%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 70.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.06

More corners: Bournemouth (60.5% home / 39.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 65.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bournemouth Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 33%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (70.0% model probability) High

Corners Bournemouth (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.